Every so often, great minds feel the need to say something about the strange sense of déjà vu it’s possible to get when we realize that something which happened in the past is revisiting us. Mark Twain said ‘history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme’ – which I quite like. Harry S Truman added later, ‘“The only thing new in the world is the history you do not know.” Another I like is Karl Marx’s ‘history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce’.
My favourite (although not about repetition) is Douglas Adams’s ‘In the bathtub of history, the truth is like the soap but twice as hard to get hold of’.
Quite a few years ago, I read Henry Kamen’s ‘Spain’s Road to Empire’, about the rise to global prominence of Spain. His telling has it that the Spanish were hopeless colonists who didn’t benefit anything like as much as their bankers; had no chance of competing with the other colonial powers; rarely invested anything but were otherwise great adventurers even though they had the Italians do a lot of their sailing.
I mention this because one thing that stuck in my mind was this. After removing the last vestige of Muslim rule from Spain in 1492, the great Catholic monarchs, Ferdinand and Isabella sent a number of regiments (called Tercio in Spanish) to Italy. This was looking after their interests because Spain had extensive territories in the peninsula. The country was a disunited collection of city states trying to expunge a large French military presence. Spain was welcomed with open arms because it was not France. The City States (at least the ones not loyal to Spain) imagined they could rid themselves of France, but gave no thought to what would happen with a large Spanish army camped outside their gates.
A century of Spanish influence, meddling and warfare later, a Spanish diplomat was able to complain “we are the most hated nation in the world”.
You can see this with regard to the US; initially feted in Europe and Asia because of it’s historic break with the British Empire, it’s freedom and self declared lack of interest in Empire. Now the US is, if not the most hated nation then it certainly does have a trust gap to contend with.
Now apply this to China.
The country insists that it wants a peaceful rise. This can be tested by its current conduct toward its neighbours. Whilst recovering Macau and Hong Kong from the Portugal and the UK was a necessary step, China continues to aggressively assert its dominance in the South China Sea. China claims a vast area of that sea including waters that belong to Brunei, Vietnam and the Philippines. In the case of Vietnam, going as far as sending a drilling rig into Vietnamese territorial waters.
Beside this, China rejects foreign concerns about human rights abuses and Tibet as ‘foreign interference’. However, China reserves the right to interfere in the internal affairs of foreign states; attempting to control who does and does not see the Dalai Lama and foreign hosted cultural events because a participant questions China’s rights record.
This meddling is far more subtle than the demands made by Western countries but it is meddling nonetheless. I do not believe they are symptomatic of a ‘peaceful rise’.
On the wider front I suspect two states in particular will come to regret their dealings with China.
Pakistan has handed over the port of Gwadar to the Chinese to run, after China became concerned that the upgrading of that facility was proceeding too slowly. Gwadar is important because of its place on the shore of the Arabian Sea. A planned ‘Economic Corridor’ between the mutual border and Gwadar could cut days off the sea voyage to Western markets for its goods.
Back in December, UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s visit to China, as was noted at the time, contained special humiliation for Britain; with the Coalition Government desperate for investment in its expensive infrastructure projects the UK was forced to grovel in front of China. Payback for the past, perhaps.
In both instances these measures smack of desperation.
Pakistan is an economic basket case and desperate for foreign money, largely reliant on hand outs to keep it going. It needs a miracle to grow its economy to the point where most people can find private sector jobs with money to spend. That just isn’t the case at the moment. The private sector is simply unable to create jobs on the scale needed. Pakistan’s population is growing all the time which generates further stress on Pakistan’s ability to absorb them into the workforce when they start looking for work.
Britain’s problem is a bit different. It is a declining power desperate to keep the City of London as the world’s financial capital. As it is, economic power appears to be shifting east. London has to attract new users to its markets and trading floors if it is to remain relevant. The biggest new player appears to be China.
In Pakistan, China has secured a Treaty Port. A Treaty Port creates a stable environment for a country to do business within a territory often on preferential terms. Their history is not a happy one.
The difficulty is that Treaty Ports give a foothold that can be hard to remove when national interests clash. Eventually, the British East India Company ran the ports of Bombay, Madras and Calcutta became military strong points and provided a gateway to the British to conquer India.
The Chinese know their history and probably would never allow foreigners to have preferential agreements on running ports or trading facilities at any time in the future. Nor, I suspect, would the United States. I think Treaty Ports are born out of weakness or complacency by the host power. The danger here is that giving another country such a strong foothold on their own territory, both countries risk their independence of action.
China may well say it wants a peaceful rise, but historically speaking rising powers always get around to flexing their muscles. Some start sooner than others. And that country is already throwing its weight around. Whilst none of this is unique to China (we are all human, for better and for worse) none of it bodes well for the future of either country.